Burma's Puppet Show - The Irrawaddy News Magazine

Let me be clear that Burma?s new Parliament will not pave the way for change; nor will ?disciplinary democracy flourish.? It is very much a hush-hush affair in military style?even choosing its own puppet to run the show. It is a show of cowards and clowns roaming the Parliament.

This week, the puppet master Snr-Gen Than Shwe was making his move. The senior general kept his thoughts to himself until the last minute, keeping everyone guessing who the president and vice-president will be. There are some surprises though.

Gen Shwe Mann is out of favor?he is now the chairman of the Lower House. Prime Minister Thein Sein and Tin Aung Myint Oo were nominated to be vice-presidents. Last month, a journalist friend told me that Thein Sein was the likely candidate to become president. And so it has come to pass.

As a token gesture, an ethnic Shan?Sai Mauk Kham, a little known politician from the junta-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP)?was elected as one of three vice-presidents. This confirmed earlier speculation that the regime would appoint someone from an ethnic region to be vice-president. Burma?s first president in 1948 was Shan.

If we were betting on Shwe Mann to become president, then we were all betting on the wrong horse. Shwe Mann was exposed long ago.

Did Than Shwe lose trust in him?

Some even speculated that there was an internal rift between two wives. What happened between Than Shwe's wife Kyaing Kyaing and Shwe Mann's wife Khin Lay Thet? 

Khin Lay Thet often babysits Than Shwe's grandchildren and runs errands for his daughters. This helped Shwe Mann rise to the rank of joint chief of staff of the army, navy and air force.

Remember that since 1997, Than Shwe has brought many of his trusted officers to the War Office, including Gen Soe Win, Gen Thein Sein, Gen Thura Shwe Mann, Gen Tin Aung Myint Oo and Gen Tin Aye. Except for Gen Soe Win, who was prime minister until he died in 2007, the rest are still there.

Shwe Mann is no saint. He has used his position to increase his family's wealth. Two of his sons set up a company, Ayer Shwe Wah, which monopolizes the lucrative import and export business. It is entirely impossible to believe that Than Shwe doesn?t know anything of Shwe Mann and his sons' business. Some say the senior general is known to be upset with his business connection. There were spin-doctors who in the past said that Shwe Mann is the one who would reform the economy once he became president.

There is a rumor circulating in Burma that Kyaing Kyaing is upset with Khin Lay Thet. Inside sources speculate that Than Shwe and Kyaing Kyaing thought Khin Lay Thet spoiled their children and grandchildren, who became increasingly unpopular in Burma.

Remember what happened between Kyaing Kyaing and Dr Khin Win Shwe, the wife of intelligence chief Gen Khin Nyunt? Many would agree family relations play a key role in Burma?s power dynamics.

But who knew that Than Shwe trusted Thein Sein enough to make him president? Until last week, no one was sure who he was thinking to select.

Thein Sein is a loyal officer and known to be an administrator. He has served under Than Shwe in the War Office since the early 1990s. With Than Shwe?s blessings, he rapidly rose through the ranks.

Born on April 21, 1945, Thein Sein is known to be less corrupt than many other generals, such as Shwe Mann and Tin Aung Myint Oo. He is not that controversial compared to many other top-ranking generals. But once he reaches the top, more dirt on Thein Sein will likely emerge.

Thein Sein is known to take no initiative but will wait for orders from his boss, Than Shwe. At 66, he is believed to be suffering from heart disease and wanting to retire. But the puppet master asked him to stay on. If Burma becomes chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in the near future, Thein Sein is the best choice to present the new regime.

It is Than Shwe?s technique to play moderates off of hardliners. If Thein Sein is soft, Tin Aung Myint Oo is a fire-breathing dragon and notoriously corrupt. He has a foul mouth and many officers resent him. But this is useful. Than Shwe usually keeps a villain in the regime to serve his own interests. He can always hide behind the villain.

The bonus to Than Shwe, who just turned 78 this month, is that Thein Sein and Tin Aung Myint Oo are at loggerheads.

Is history repeating itself? Remember that Than Shwe silently sat and watched the bitter fight between intelligence and infantry factions until 2002 before he stepped in. He benefited from a fierce power struggle between Gen Khin Nyunt and Gen Maung Aye. To remain the puppet master, Than Shwe needs to keep two rivals at the top. He won?t leave soon.

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Burma's Parliament Elects Former PM as President - Voice of America

Daniel Schearf | Bangkok  February 04, 2011

Thein Sein (File)

Burma’s military-dominated parliament has elected the country’s first president, choosing military loyalist Thein Sein. Although a civilian now is nominally leading the government, Burma experts say the military maintains its grip on power but there is still a chance for gradual change.  

Burma’s parliament on Friday elected a former general, Prime Minister Thein Sein, to serve as the country’s president in the new civilian government.

He was chosen over two other military loyalists who will serve as vice presidents.  

As prime minister, he was the international face of Burma’s military government and considered the favorite for president.

He resigned from the military to lead the Union Solidarity and Development Party to victory in a controversial November election.

The government says the vote was key to a move to civilian-led democracy.

The USDP, backed by the military, won about 80 percent of the elected seats. Rights groups call the vote a sham and opposition parties complained of vote fraud and intimidation.

Carl Thayer is a professor specializing in Southeast Asia at the Australian Defense Force Academy. He says despite the new civilian leadership, the military remains the dominant force in Burma, also known as Myanmar, but he holds out hope for change.

"If we take the Indonesian example, once you create different interests among civilianized military from the professional military itself, and as Burma opens up, then what we saw in new order Indonesia was a rift between military and the Suharto regime and its cronies. That could also happen in Myanmar," he said.

Burma’s parliament convened this week for the first time in two decades to choose the president, who will then appoint a government.

It is not clear if Senior General Than Shwe will remain head of the military, but Thayer says he is likely to maintain some power at least for the time being.

"To play a role behind the scenes, trying to protect his empire, his family interest, and manipulating. But, at 77 he will go the way of other dictators, that, eventually people will be looking beyond him because of mortality. And thus the loyal subalterns and lieutenants begin to make their own arrangements," he said.

The military closed parliamentary procedures to the public and announced strict rules for raising questions that prevent debate over issues it does not want discussed.

The military-drafted constitution reserves a quarter of all seats in parliament for the army, even before elections.

The largest opposition group won only 12 seats.

The National League for Democracy, the biggest opposition party, was disbanded for boycotting the election and refusing to expel leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

The NLD won Burma’s last election in 1990 but the military never allowed it to take power and kept Aung San Suu Kyi locked up for most of the past two decades.

She was freed from house arrest after the elections but is not allowed to participate in politics.

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