Terrorism sponsor no more? Obama hints at taking Sudan from the list. - Christian Science Monitor

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Nepal gets new leader, but future still jittery - Christian Science Monitor

Kathmandu, Nepal

Nepal got a functioning prime minister after seven months of leadership vacuum on Thursday, but analysts refused to call it a breakthrough and remained jittery about the future of the country’s stalled peace process.

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Jhala Nath Khanal, the chief of a moderate communist party, Unified Marxist Leninist (UML), was elevated to the post after 16 rounds of voting. He got last-minute backing from the Unified Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist), which fought a 10-year war against state forces until 2006.

While a step forward after months of embarrassing votes, the formation of a government is just a small step toward political stability in Nepal, which confronts the serious challenges of settling the future of some 19,000 Maoist combatants and drawing up a new constitution. And analysts say that the new coalition threatens to cause a left-leaning polarization and an escalation of ambitions of the Maoists, who are now in a position to oust the new prime minister at will.

The previous government was backed by the moderate Nepali Congress party and several ethnic parties, making it less receptive to Maoist demands. Those demands include radical land reforms, subservience of the judiciary to the legislature, and a constitutional provision of banning "antinationalist’" political parties.

Mr. Kanal is considered far more sympathetic to Maoist agendas.

“The coalition might trigger a fragmentation in Nepal’s politics,” warns Yubaraj Ghimire, political commentator and former editor of the Kathmandu Post. “Depending on how the Maoists behave, a tussle between Nepal Army and democratic forces on the one side, and the ruling coalition on the other side, is possible,” he adds.

Others are even gloomier in their assessment.

“The only achievement of Thursday’s election is that the parliament replaced a caretaker prime minister with a functioning prime minister,” says Bhimarjun Acharya, a columnist and constitutional lawyer. “I don’t expect the formation of a new government to inject any momentum into the constitution writing effort."

The Nepali Congress party said on Friday that it felt betrayed by UML forming an alliance with the Maoists. The previous government was supported by the Nepali Congress, which had expected UML to support to their prime ministerial candidate.

The future of ex-combatants and a new constitution was supposed to have been resolved by last May. But a power struggle that has gripped the country since a special assembly was elected in April, 2008, hindered progress.

The assembly’s life was extended, and just four months remain before the extended deadline expires. A UN mission that was monitoring the combatants, who are corralled in 28 camps, left the country Jan. 15.

Mr. Acharya, the lawyer, terms Thursday’s surprise coalition announcement unnatural. “It was just an expression of anger and frustration of the Maoists. After being unable to gather support for getting elected himself, Maoist chairman Prachanda wanted to teach India a lesson by elevating someone not favored by India to power,” he says.

Prachanda admitted while addressing the parliament on Thursday that he had decided to withdraw his own candidacy and support Khanal to prove that Nepal can make its own decisions, a clear reference to Indian influence (often termed here as interference) in Nepal’s politics.

His support could complicate Khanal's ability to function. Khanal's UML party leadership is dominated by liberal communists who do not want to promote the Maoist agenda. Khanal will face the twin challenge of tempering the liberals in his own party and continuing to get support of the Maoist party.

Narayan Wagle, editor-in-chief of Nagarik, a leading Nepali daily, echoed similar concerns in an opinion piece published Friday. “The success of the new government will depend on whether the Maoists use Mr. Khanal as their puppet," he wrote, "or help him complete the peace process and constitution writing.”

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US-sized Cyclone Yasi could cost Australia more than $2 billion - Christian Science Monitor

Melbourne, Australia

As the disaster-ravaged state of Queensland dusts itself off from Cyclone Yasi, economists are warning that Australia’s latest tussle with nature could wipe more than $2 billion off the country’s gross domestic product. Food prices and insurance premiums are expected to rise, while a vital tourism and agricultural area has been decimated.

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Still, considering Yasi was a category five cyclone only a little smaller than the United States, analysts are saying Australia should consider itself lucky.

“It certainly could have been a lot worse,” says Luke Mathews, a commodity analyst with the Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

Yasi flattened properties, overturned luxury yachts, and ripped up plantations along a 125-mile-stretch of Queensland’s picturesque coast when it came ashore with winds of more than 125 mph late Wednesday night. On Thursday some 130,000 properties remained without electricity as Australia deployed 4,000 soldiers to help with the recovery effort. At least one person is known to have died in the cyclone, asphyxiated by fumes from a generator operating in a small room.

“We were extremely lucky from an economic perspective," continues Mr. Mathews. "We were lucky because of where Yasi crossed the Australian coast, which avoided major population centers, and we were lucky because it avoided key mining infrastructure and assets. But certainly the agricultural industry will be impacted.”

Agricultural losses from Yasi are already being put at $1 billion, while $300 million in coal exports have been lost because of suspended business operations and port closures. Queensland’s latest natural disaster bill comes as the state recovers from January floods that covered an area larger than Texas and California combined and caused $5.6 billion in damage.

Damage to Queensland’s sugarcane crop is expected to weigh in at $500 million, representing about 30 percent of Australia’s harvest. Australia is the world’s third-largest sugar exporter. World sugar prices rose to a 37-year-high after news of Yasi broke. They dropped significantly Thursday, but were still trading some three times above the long-term average.

Likewise, the price of bananas is expected to soar by up to 500 per cent after three quarters of the nation’s crop was wiped out. Queensland’s banana industry, worth some $400 million, was only just getting back on its feet following Cyclone Larry in 2006 which decimated 90 percent of the nation’s crop.

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