What Israel fears in Egypt - Washington Post

One might expect that Israelis, who live in the only democracy in the Middle East, would turn out in the squares of Jerusalem and the gardens of Tel Aviv to show solidarity with the demonstrators in Egypt. The protesters, after all, are seeking to overthrow an authoritarian regime.

Israelis, however, have stayed at home, warily following events on TV and the Internet.

It is not a democratic Egypt that Israelis fear but the prospect of Egypt being hijacked by enemies of democracy, of Israel and of the United States. Within every revolution are some who hope to use democratic processes to establish oppressive regimes. This was, to a large extent, what triumphed in Iran in 1979 and what happened in Gaza only five years ago. Many Israelis wonder why it would be any different in Egypt, which is home to the world's most powerful and popular Islamist movement.

Should the government of Hosni Mubarak be replaced by one not truly committed to freedom and peace, the consequences for Israel could be devastating. As Egypt struggles toward an internal balance that appeases all forces, including the Muslim Brotherhood, peace with Israel could be the price of an Egyptian compromise. And the risks are worse if the Brotherhood, an organization deeply hostile to Israel, America and the West, gets to call the shots.

Consider what an Egyptian official once told me: "There is no war without Egypt." From 1948 to 1973, Israel had to fight four wars against coalitions of Arab armies. Since the peace agreement between Egypt and Israel, however, there has not been even one war between Israel and Arab states. The lives of many Israelis and Arabs have been saved over the past four decades, and the security burden on Israel's economy has become more bearable. Yet if the peace with Egypt dissolves, the risks to the Jewish state and its citizens cannot be overstated.

The implications for the region could be massive. If Israel's western neighbor turns hostile, where would that leave our eastern neighbor, Jordan? Would it remain at peace with us? What would be the impact on other pro-American regimes? How many weeks, or days, would the new alignment of interests between Israel and most Arab regimes last against an aggressive and nuclear-armed Iran? If there is a negative outcome to the events unfolding in Egypt, the world will be living with a new Middle East, but it will be very different from the one we all aspire to.

Meanwhile, Israelis are uncertain about some positions of the U.S. administration. They remember how, after the 2009 presidential election, the Obama administration refused to support courageous Iranians who demonstrated against the oppressive "hate to America" regime in Tehran. People are understandably puzzled when news reports show an ally of America - even an authoritarian one - abandoned while U.S. rivals are honored with state dinners in Washington, despite their gross violations of human rights. In this highly charged region, Washington's actions are carefully watched. Israelis are looking at the results of U.S. policy in Iraq, the recent loss of Lebanon to Iran and how American pressure on Israel led to a "democratic" takeover of the Palestinian Authority by Hamas terrorists. Israelis live every day with the results of the U.S. administration's blunder that made already-difficult negotiations with the Palestinians impossible.

Israelis have learned the hard way that Israel cannot shape internal developments in our neighboring Arab states. While they wish America could responsibly engage in this process and ensure a positive outcome, they also doubt whether even America can prevent events from proceeding toward, and down, a slippery slope.

It is said, and is possibly true, that worry may be in the Jewish genes. With our history, having paved so many roads with good intentions only to see them lead to destruction, and having experienced how democratic slogans and processes have been abused again and again by murderous dictators, it is hard not to be concerned.

The future of Egypt is uncertain: Is it a hostile Islamist tyranny, using democracy as a fake ladder, or a compromise at Israel's expense that may be about to occur? The fear of war and death is on Israelis' hearts and minds.

But if a real democracy, committed to the values of freedom and peace, were to emerge in Egypt, Israelis would overwhelmingly support it.

The writer was Israel's ambassador to the United States from 2005 to 2009.

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Israel jittery about gas supply from Egypt - The Associated Press

Israel jittery about gas supply from Egypt(AP) – 1 hour ago

JERUSALEM (AP) — An explosion at an Egyptian gas terminal that disrupted the supply of fuel to Israel had Israeli officials pressing Sunday to speed development of a natural gas deposit that they say can make Israel energy independent.

Infrastructures Minister Uzi Landau wants the government to back loans so financing can be obtained to develop the Tamar field, off Israel's coast in the Mediterranean Sea, a spokesman said. Landau also favors exempting the field's developers from a proposed windfall tax.

"We have to do everything to improve Israel's energy security," Landau told Israel Radio on Sunday. "It is Israel's obligation to remove as soon as possible every obstacle" to developing Tamar, he said.

Landau's spokesman, Chen Ben-Lulu, said the goal was to have gas from Tamar flowing into Israel by 2013. The explosion in Egypt on Saturday "just proves" the need to do so, he added.

"We want energy independence and to achieve it as soon as possible," Ben-Lulu said.

The explosion in Egypt's northern Sinai Peninsula on Saturday came amid a popular uprising against longtime Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. The blast set off a massive fire that was contained by shutting off the flow of gas to Jordan and Israel. Egypt's natural gas company said the fire was caused by a gas leak, but local officials said an explosive device was detonated inside the terminal.

Egypt is to sell Israel 1.7 billion cubic meters a year for at least 15 years under a deal that went into effect three years ago. Israeli industry analysts see that flow as important to diversifying Israel's fuel sources and for political relations.

At the same time, the turmoil in Egypt, which supplies up to half of the natural gas that Israel currently uses to power its electrical plants, has emphasized to Israelis the dangers of relying on other sources for fuel.

Israel's Tamar field is said to contain about 8 trillion cubic meters of gas. In December, gas exploration companies led by U.S.-based Noble Energy announced that another deposit in Israeli waters, Leviathan, contained some 16 trillion cubic meters.

The finds — which Lebanon says, without providing proof, lie partly in Lebanese waters — are enough to keep Israel energy self-sufficient for decades, Israeli experts say.

"Israel needs to achieve security of energy supply. This is one of the most fundamental security and economic aspects of a country," said Gina Cohen, an electricity and gas industry consultant based in Israel.

The notion of energy independence is a radical shift for Israel, a country that has had to haul oil from Mexico and coal from South Africa because its oil-rich Arab neighbors won't sell it fuel.

The supply of gas from Egypt has always been dogged by fears that the flow could be disrupted by saboteurs or political forces hostile to the deal and Egypt's 1979 peace treaty with Israel.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday that the government had been prepared for the possible disruption of Egyptian supplies and arranged for other sources to compensate.

"Because of these advance preparations, no disruptions in the gas supply to Israel are expected," he said.

Power supplied by state-run Israel Electric Corp., overwhelmingly the largest client for natural gas in Israel, will not be affected by the Egyptian cutoff, Israeli officials said.

Copyright © 2011 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.

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Egyptian Gas Exports to Israel, Jordan May Be Halted Two Weeks - Bloomberg

Egyptian anti-government protesters gather at Cairo's Tahrir Square. Photographer: Marco Longari/AFP/Getty Images

An effigy of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak hangs in a traffic intersection in Tahrir Square on Feb. 5, 2011 in Cairo. Photographer: John Moore/Getty Images

Egyptian natural-gas exports to Israel and Jordan may be halted for as much as two weeks after an explosion damaged a pipeline in the Sinai Desert yesterday, Egyptian Oil Minister Sameh Fahmy told state television.

The incident at El Arish in the northeastern Sinai was an act of “terror” carried out by “foreign hands,” state TV said, while the Oil Ministry said a gas leak caused the blast. It may take one to two weeks to repair the pipeline, Fahmy told state TV in an interview late yesterday.

The branch of the pipeline that carries natural gas into Israel wasn’t directly damaged in the incident, the Merhav Group of Companies said yesterday in a text message. Merhav is an importer of Egyptian gas. About 40 percent of gas consumed in Israel is imported from Egypt.

The disruption to the pipeline has political and symbolic ramifications beyond the impact on fuel supplies to Egypt’s neighbors, particularly for Israel. President Hosni Mubarak’s 30-year rule has been shaken by almost two weeks of popular demonstrations, prompting questions about what political orientation a successor government might have.

Mubarak has warned that an early departure for him would leave Egypt, the first Arab country to sign a peace treaty with Israel in 1979, in chaos.

Israel’s Ministry of National Infrastructure said in a statement yesterday that it doesn’t foresee any interruptions to the country’s electricity supply.

Ampal

Billionaire Isaac Tshuva’s Delek Energy Systems Ltd., Ratio Oil Exploration 1992 LP and Avner Oil Exploration-LP are Israeli energy-related stocks that have climbed in recent days amid the unrest in Egypt.

Ampal-American Israel Corp., based in Herzliya, is Israel’s biggest supplier of natural gas.

The Sinai incident occurred on a part of the natural-gas network before it divides into branches serving Jordan and Israel, Marwan Bqaeen, head of the natural-gas unit at the Jordanian Energy Ministry, said in a telephone interview. Egyptian gas exports to Jordan may be halted for about a week, Petra news agency reported yesterday, citing Ghaleb al-Maabira, general director of Jordan’s state electricity company.

Egypt has halted gas supplies “as a safety precaution,” and Jordan has “resorted to back-up fuel,” Bqaeen said.

Egypt’s Reserves

Egypt has natural-gas reserves of 77 trillion cubic feet and is the main producer of the hydrocarbon in the eastern Mediterranean, according to the U.S. Energy Department. The country exported 650 billion cubic feet of gas in 2009, 30 percent by either the Arab gas pipeline to Jordan, Syria and Lebanon, or to Israel through the El-Arish-Ashkelon line, according to the U.S. department’s figures.

The line to Israel has operated since 2008 and can supply up to 7 billion cubic meters a year, according to Israel’s Department of Natural Infrastructure. Israel imported 60 billion cubic feet of gas in 2009, U.S. Energy Department data show.

Egypt supplies Israel with gas under a 15-year contract and is likely to eventually deliver almost 1 trillion cubic feet. Israel imports about 85 percent of its energy.

Israeli National Infrastructure Minister Uzi Landau said Feb. 1 that events in Egypt should heighten concern over the supply of natural gas to Israel, and the country should move quickly to develop its own gas reserves.

Jordan, which imports almost all its energy supplies, aims to increase imports of Egyptian gas for use in its power plants to 330 million cubic meters in 2011, from 240 million cubic meters last year, then Energy Minister Khalid Irani said in an interview on July 14.

Syria imported 679 million cubic meters from Egypt in 2010, making up about 8 percent of the country’s needs, according to government figures.

To contact the reporter on this story: Nayla Razzouk in Amman at nrazzouk2@bloomberg.net; Ola Galal in Cairo at ogalal@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Peter Hirschberg at phirschberg@bloomberg.net

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